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  4. Scenarios for anthropogenic copper demand and supply in China: Implications of a scrap import ban and a circular economy transition
 
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2020
Journal Article
Title

Scenarios for anthropogenic copper demand and supply in China: Implications of a scrap import ban and a circular economy transition

Abstract
Copper is widely used in buildings, transportation and home appliances, resulting in steadily increasing demand in China. From 2013 on, China has implemented the ""Green Fence"" policy to restrict copper scrap imports, which have affected and will continue to affect its future copper supply. To explore how China's copper demand can be met in the future, including the effects of the ""Green Fence"" policy change, in this paper a stock-driven approach is combined with a scenario analysis. We compare two scenarios (Continuity Policy, Circular Economy) and assess the influence of the ""Green Fence"" policy on each. We conclude that effective measures to prolong product lifetime could lead to a significant reduction in copper demand. Given the limited scope for domestic mining, China will still have to depend largely on imports of primary material in the form of concentrates and refined copper or, otherwise, put major emphasis on its recycling industry and continue to import high-quality copper scrap. In combination with the establishment of a state-of-the-art, efficient and environmentally friendly recycling industry, secondary copper could satisfy the bulk of Chinese copper demand and this could be an opportunity for China to transition to a more circular economy with regard to copper.
Author(s)
Dong, Di
Leiden Univ., CML
Tercero Espinoza, Luis A.  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Loibl, Antonia  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Pfaff, Matthias  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Tukker, Arnold
Leiden Univ., CML, TNO
Voet, Ester van der
Leiden Univ., CML
Journal
Resources, conservation and recycling  
Open Access
DOI
10.24406/publica-r-263159
10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104943
File(s)
N-593289.pdf (3.83 MB)
Rights
CC BY 4.0: Creative Commons Attribution
Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Keyword(s)
  • copper supply

  • circular economy

  • scrap import ban

  • Green Fence policy

  • recycling

  • material flow analysis

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