Advances in modelling sustainable innovation: From technology bias to system theories and behavioural dynamics

This chapter summarizes new directions in modelling sustainable innovation: the application of the ideas of evolutionary economics to apply the new systems theories of sustainable innovation - multi-level perspective and technological innovation systems. Such models necessarily apply the concepts of complex systems science. An important improvement compared to the conventional economic models of innovation is the ability to represent behaviour - of consumers, households, firms, governments - in more sophisticated and plausible ways. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide one avenue of approach. Evolutionary methods can show how alternatives are generated, while models that represent the neo-Schumpeterian ideas and sustainability transitions narrative of regime change can suggest how the 'closing down' process may play out. Further research questions include: Can models support processes of sustainable innovation including niche experiments and growth? Can they provide policy analysis and support for the different levels of governance, from district councils to global negotiations for climate change?