Modelling and simulating the dynamics of the European demand for bio-based plastics

Bio-based plastics are currently hardly competitive on the European market mainly due to their high production costs compared to fossil-based alternatives. A major issue in this context is the interplay between decreasing production costs and changing framework conditions and its effect on the competitiveness of bio-based plastics. In order to examine this, we developed a System Dynamics model that we use for simulations based on various assumptions defined in a high-level expert workshop. Our results show a positive influence on the market price and hence on the demand for bio-based plastics of establishing new capacities and adopting new production technologies. Despite this, bio-based plastics will not achieve cost competitiveness in the next 15-year period if framework conditions with regard to the oil price remain unchanged and if no new policy incentives are introduced such as tax exemptions and subsidies for new technologies. This negative trend is further enhanced later on by rising feedstock prices on the biomass market.