Dynamic analysis of European copper flows

A dynamic material stock & flow model for the European Union (EU28) is presented and discussed. Detailed results are provided for the period 1990-2014 including trade flows, while the modelling period extends from 1910-2014 using extrapolation based on economic growth in order to better depict the build-up of long-term stocks (especially building & infrastructure). Model results indicate a total copper stock in use of approx. 82 million tonnes of copper in 2014, with a net addition to stock on the order of 500 thousand tonnes. Comparison with different country studies reveals different dynamics in Eastern and Western Europe. Eight recycling indicators are presented for 2014 and the latest 10-year period. In 2005-2014, ≈50% of copper refined and remelted in the EU was from secondary sources (recycling input rate), ≈50-60% of which were post-consumer (old) scrap (end of life recycling input rate 25-30% depending on the assumed composition of traded scrap). Uncertainties in the input parameters were explored using a stochastic method with 10.000 simulation runs.