Comprehensive technology exploitation using system dynamics and scenario analysis

So far, only few research facilities and companies benefit from strategic planning of technology exploitation. Thus, a vast technological as well as economic potential remains untapped. A major reason for the neglect of the exploitation potential is that a situational assessment of exploitation opportunities throughout the entire technology life cycle has not yet been systematically explored. Although individual aspects of the problem were treated, a comprehensive model considering all relevant variables, such as the technology to be exploited, the specific objectives of the research and development project and the relevant factors of the environment of the exploitation situation, has not yet been developed. In addition, the change of these factors should be taken into account throughout the technology life cycle. In order to achieve this goal all relevant variables for the exploitation decision have to be described in sub-models and later combined in a multi-attribute decision model. Based on a first framework presented prior by the authors, the intended contribution of the pre-sent paper is to develop a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between the key influential factors of the exploitation situation as well as the considered sub-models. Thereby the expected developments of the sub-models for the used System Dynamics model and the Scenario Analysis can be modeled.