Turkey's strategic energy efficiency plan - an ex ante impact assessment of the residential sector

Turkey's energy demand has been growing by 4.5% per year over the last decade. As a reaction to this, the Turkish government has implemented the Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan (SEEP), which provides a guideline for energy efficiency policies in all sectors. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential of the SEEP on final energy demand in the Turkish residential sector until 2030. Three scenarios are developed based on a detailed bottom-up modelling approach using a vintage stock model to simulate the energy demand of heating systems and appliances. The results show a decreasing final energy demand in the reference scenario from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 843 PJ in 2030. This reflects a structural break, which is mainly caused by a high building demolition rate and low efficiency in the existing building stock. The SEEP achieves additional savings of around 111 PJ until 2030, while a scenario with even higher efficiency shows further savings of 91 PJ. Electricity demand increases in all scenarios - mainly due to growing ownership rates of appliances. The SEEP will achieve around 10 TWh of electricity savings in 2030 compared to the reference scenario, mainly through more ambitious end-use standards.