Fuel choice in industrial steam generation: Empirical evidence reveals technology preferences

Scenario analysis of the energy system relies largely on model calculation and underlying techno-economic data. In the industrial context, the influence of behavioral aspects has been neglected or is subject to expert-judgment. Empirical evidence on technology preferences is scarce. In this publication, we present original survey results for preferences in industrial steam generation technologies in Germany. Additionally, we compare the performance of a set of preference parameters derived from these results with expert-judgment. We find that in the sample, coal- and oil-based generation is perceived as less attractive than biomass- and natural gas-based generation by avalue equivalent to 4.40 ect/kWh and 2.26 ect/kWh, respectively, for experienced users. This effect is stronger for inexperienced users (+55%). Different results were obtained in an energy system model using these stated preferences and expert judgment (considering revealed preference data). This might hint at a shift of preferences.