Development of a Methodology to Determine Change Variance in Product Architecture Elements in the Context of the Upgrade Circular Economy

Increasing resource scarcity, environmental effects and rising regulatory pressure require a transition from linear economy towards upgrade circular economy. Within this context, re-assembly and upgrade strategies aim to extend product lifecycles by enabling value-adding improvements over multiple use phases. However, the successful implementation of such circular approaches is often hindered by a lack of transparency regarding where and how changes may occur within a product architecture. Dynamic influences from markets, customer needs, and technological developments are difficult to anticipate, leading to inflexible designs and missed upgrade opportunities. This paper introduces a concept for a methodology to determine the change variance of product architecture elements in the context of the circular economy. The approach combines foresight-based analyses with architectural modelling to identify and quantify the potential of future changes. By systematically linking market and technology trends to functional and structural product representations, it becomes possible to locate those elements most susceptible to change and assess their impact on re-assembly and upgrade potential. The resulting evaluation of architectural flexibility and criticality supports designers in developing future-resilient architectures that can accommodate evolving requirements. The proposed methodology enables manufacturing companies to proactively integrate expected change into early product development stages. It thereby enhances upgradeability, extends product lifetime, and fosters the practical realization of circular economy principles through adaptive and foresight-driven product architectures.