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  4. A general deterministic model of ordinary differential equations for a broad variety of different diseases
 
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2024
Journal Article
Title

A general deterministic model of ordinary differential equations for a broad variety of different diseases

Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the pivotal role of mathematical models in comprehending pandemic dynamics and making accurate predictions under diverse interventions. Various mathematical models, particularly deterministic ones, have proven valuable for analyzing the impact of political, social, and medical measures during ongoing pandemics. In this study, we aim to formulate and characterize a comprehensive model applicable to different infectious diseases. Reviewing numerous disease-specific models reveals a common foundation in the Kermack–McKendrick model (SIR model). While there are more general versions incorporating population dynamics, vector populations, and vaccination, none encompass all attributes simultaneously. To address this gap, we propose a comprehensive general model capable of accommodating different transmission modes, pandemic control measures, and diverse pathogens. Unlike disease-specific models, having such a pre-established model with foundational mathematical properties analyzed eliminates the need to reevaluate these characteristics for each new disease-specific model. This article presents our comprehensive general model, supported by mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, offering a versatile tool for understanding the dynamics of emerging infectious diseases and guiding intervention strategies. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through simulations.
Author(s)
Sticha, Christoph
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Picasso, Francesco
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Kuttler, Christina
Technische Universität München
Höelscher, Michael
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Wieser, Andreas
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Castelletti, Noemi
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Journal
Chaos Solitons and Fractals  
Funder
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung  
Open Access
DOI
10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115475
Additional link
Full text
Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für Translationale Medizin und Pharmakologie ITMP  
Keyword(s)
  • Compartmental model

  • Epidemic control

  • General epidemic model

  • Numerical simulation

  • Ordinary differential equations

  • Reproduction rate

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