What Users Expect from Future Terminal Devices: Empirical Results from an Expert Survey

For the acceptance of future network-based media services the technical advancement of the man-machine interface is of great importance. The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Karlsruhe has conducted an expert survey on different acceptance factors, on the future development of media usage behaviour, on network infrastructure and terminal devices as well as on the expected market development. Drawing on the results we point out perspectives in the light of today's user needs and the technical possibilities. In spite of the tremedous growth in the use of online services, the necessary terminal devices will change less dramatically in the coming 15 years as forecasted by some technology evangelists. The most requested features of innovative technology, in particular user adaptive devices and software agents to selectively augment human intellect will only partly be developed. Instead of new revolutionary qualities, a number of incremental improvements in transmission rates, computing power and software functions are ahead. Although these innovations will make the use of online media services more comfortable or simply more exciting, users will still have to accept the numerous minor and major annoyances whilst working with their terminal devices. The still increasing number of online users, however, shows that many are willing to accept these circumstances. Hence , the increase is less due to more user friendly devices but rather to new or improvement aspects of utility compared to traditional alternatives. Such aspects are in particular the greater flexibilty in time and the timeliness of information content. A crucial factor for the broad diffussion of online media services remains the strengthening of competencies through education and training as well as personal, non-commercial help in case of problems.