Applying Monte Carlo simulation in an indicator-based approach to evaluate freight transportation scenarios

Policymakers and decision makers are often unable to estimate the impacts and interdependencies of new transportation concepts. Methodological approaches do not include macroscopic ex-Ante assessments of new technological and economic concepts. That is why a new method called the VLVI method has been developed at Otto von Guericke University and the Fraunhofer Institute for Factory Operation and Automation IFF in Magdeburg. Based on a large number of key performance indicators (KPI) that describe transportation infrastructures and their processes, the method maps various effects in and between freight transportation systems. The uncertainty of predictions is factored into the model by integrating Monte Carlo simulation. One comparative indicator with a confidence interval is calculated for every concept assessed with this method, thus specifying a concept's impact on the German transportation system.