Employment effects of sustainable transport - a scenario analysis for Germany using input-output modelling
The transport sector is subject of substantial changes both because of general trends such as digitalization, automation, and sharing as well as the need to achieve green house gas targets and reduce air pollution. For Germany, socioeconomic impacts of these changes have so far mainly be discussed for the automotive sector rather than the transport sector as a whole. We apply an input-output quantity model to estimate changes in employment between 2015 and 2035 for two scenarios (one emphasizing electrification, the other emphasizing the modal shift towards public transport). The model bases on the German input output table 2014, which we expanded from 72 to 92 industries to capture the transport sector with more detail. We altered transport related input coefficients exogenously to fit the scenarios and to capture technological and organizational changes, and kept other input coefficient constant. The model accounts for direct effects from the demand for infrastructure, vehicles, energy and transport services and indirect effects in all industries by using backward linkages of the economy. In both scenarios vehicle related employment (production, sale, maintenance and repair) is lower than for the status quo. On the other hand, employment in transport services and infrastructure increases in both scenarios. Both decrease and increase are more severe in the scenario emphasizing public transport. The aggregated employment in transport related industries is slightly lower than for to the status quo because the negative effects dominate this scenario. In the scenario emphasizing electrification of road transport, the positive effects overcompensate the negative effects and aggregate employment in transport related sectors increases compared to status quo.