Panarchy process for risk control and resilience quantification and improvement

Risk control based on risk (semi) quantification has much improved, being in many domains by now an auditable, certifiable and insurable process with high economic, ecological and societal relevance. At the same time, the insight has grown that such classical risk management focusing on five-phase risk and chance management is not sufficient to handle major disruptions, unexpected or even unexampled events. In this context, a concept based on catastrophe management and related (technical) capabilities, e.g. within the temporal and logical cycle phases preparation, prevention, protection, response, recovery, and learning, and related resilience concepts, proved to be a successful new and additional approach. However, now the question arises whether classical risk management (thesis) and resilience engineering (antithesis) can be combined within a synthesis, to leverage the rich insights of both approaches. The paper explores the options of combining a risk and resilience management cycle with a resilience cycle within a panarchy loop to achieve a holistic phased and iterative approach. Options are discussed and the best option is selected in terms of orthogonality of phases, merge and limitation of phases, well-defined core tasks of each phase and supporting methods. For the application domain critical infrastructure protection and the industry sector gas, it is shown how to support the phases of the joint risk and resilience management panarchy with the method quantitative gas grid simulation.