Spatial Differences in Crash Frequencies of Vulnerable Road Users in Germany: Towards Targeted Traffic Safety Initiatives

In this study, we determine and quantify systematic factors influencing the number of crashes involving vulnerable road users (VRU) in administrative districts of Germany as a basis to develop a more targeted approach for traffic safety initiatives and activities. Generalised linear models are used to quantify the effect of climate, land use, demography and vehicle traffic on VRU crashes on the macro-scale of administrative districts in Germany. Considering only differences in population size may lead to an overestimation of the safety of VRU, especially in large cities. Differences such as precipitation, modal share, age distributions, land use and tourism were identified as significant causes for differences in the safety of VRU on the macro-scale. Disregarding these differences may lead to a false assessment of the safety of VRU. The models create a baseline of crash frequencies to be expected in statistical districts for cyclists and pedestrians, and to further highlight conspicuous districts where targeted traffic safety activities should be implemented.