Early Warning System To Increase Supply Chain Resilience

Various crises in recent years, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, have exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains. In the resulting strive to become more resilient, enterprises have realized that existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) systems are insufficient. The current practice of enterprises can be described as “firefighting”, as interruptions are often recognized only after they become evident and, consequently, measures are taken reactively. In order to be able to detect deviations from the planned state in an early stage and to take measures preventively this paper proposes creating a proper early warning system (EWS). This would function by monitoring changes on the procurement market, focusing on supply shortages and price shifts. For this purpose, easy to acquire data is observed, such as indices or market prices for raw materials. This paper begins by analysing the requirements for a resilient supply chain and an EWS. A review of existing systems and methods forms the basis for the state of the art. This is followed by the identification and evaluation of influencing factors and the analysis of corresponding indices. The proposed approach is then described, concluding the paper with a validation of the concept.