Capacity-affecting Extreme Events in Stochastic Energy System Optimisation

As extreme events become more frequent and severe, they require greater consideration in energy system analysis. This study addresses this need by examining the impact of a sudden halt in photovoltaic capacity expansion within a stochastic energy system model. The EMPRISE framework is used to analyse a development pathway towards 2045 for 21 European countries, based on meteorological data from 2012. By introducing an extreme event with varying occurrence probabilities, the resulting system configurations are compared regarding system costs, investment decisions, and the activation of recourse options. The results indicate that, assuming a 50% occurrence probability of the extreme event that results in 400 GWel less photovoltaic capacity, a total of 81 GWel more wind power and 27 GWel more gas-fired power plants will be installed in Europe compared to the reference scenario, with the latter leading to an increase in hydrogen consumption of up to 700 TWh/yr.