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January 1, 2023
Conference Paper
Title
Strategic anticipation in crisis management through the lens of societal values: The SANCTUM project
Abstract
The SANCTUM project - Crisis Anticipation by Uchronic Modeling Process - was defined in order to support decision makers who lack the required tools to make a rational decision. A "rational decision", as used here, is one that is free of subjective considerations of all kinds (be it cultural, based on cognitive biases or other influences) likely to skew the analytical process and sap decision. SANCTUM provides over time the tools required to strengthen the predictive capabilities of crisis centers via a specific methodology and the modeling of predictable situations, referred to as "uchronia" (Neologism based on the prefix "u"-, already used by “utopia” and the Greek word "chronos". For this term, we attribute the meaning of alternative history based on a total rationality.) (i.e., alternate scenarios). It is not oriented toward tactical decisions entailing the operational implementation of crisis management measures but rather towards providing a common and previously agreed upon strategic framework for tactical decision making. The SANCTUM approach has been tested during the first waves of COVID 19. This paper presents the main concepts of our project.
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