Strategic electrification and optimisation of commercial vehicle fleets

The commercial vehicle market is often referred to as an early adopter market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) [1]. This paper seeks to analyse driving profiles of a conventional commercial vehicle fleet. In order to determine the market diffusion of electric vehicles, a simulation model is developed to optimise and electrify vehicle fleets strategically. The analysis aims at determining PEV-potentials for an observation period of six years and to estimate the influence of different factors on the economic and technical potential for PEVs. We conclude that commercial vehicle fleets can economically be electrified in the year 2020. In favourable conditions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can substitute every second conventional vehicle. However it becomes apparent, when varying the input parameters of our estimates, that the economic potential is very sensitive to traction battery prices, vehicle prices and energy costs.