Self-consumption with PV + Battery systems: A market diffusion model considering individual consumer behaviour and preferences
The market diffusion of self-consumption technologies, such as photovoltaic and battery systems, is an important aspect in the transition towards a sustainable energy system. Most studies, which address this issue, focus solely on economic aspects and neglect the influence of individual electricity consumption behaviour and consumer preferences on the individual benefit of a self-consumption system. Yet, preferences and behaviour have a significant impact in the market uptake of new technologies, as can be seen in the current sales figures of batteries for the purpose of self-consumption enhancement. The technology is purchased, even though it is still far from economically viable. In this study, a market diffusion model is proposed that is based on 415 individual electricity load profiles, which define the homeowners' consumption behaviour. Additionally, the results of a market survey are included to explicitly model different user groups and map their varying willingness to pay. The results show that homeowners who are likely to adopt a self-consumption technology are on average characterised by higher annual electricity consumption. The consumption behaviour, and therefore the load profiles are heterogeneous within each user group and therefore, also the individual utility of a battery for self-consumption enhancement differs significantly. The results show that the suggested modelling approach is able to explain the past development of battery installations in private households in Germany. Up until 2030, the model simulations suggest a moderate development of battery enhanced self-consumption, resulting in a battery of 2. GW. h in private households in 2030.