Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen von Emissionsminderungsstrategien
The report describes the advantages of the combined bottom-up/top-down modeling approach. The direct economic impulse of measures to reduce CO2-emission by 40% in West Germany in 2020 is calculated. A long-run econometric model is used to assess the macroeconomic effects; the structural economic effects are calculated with a dynamic input-output model. The results show only minor macroeconomic effects of climate protection policy in the long run with positive effects in the short run. Furthermore, the results for a "constant nuclear energy scenario" and a "nuclear energy phase-out scenario" are very similar. Thus, the decision on which climate protection strategy to adopt should not concentrate on the macroeconomic effects of the various strategies but on other factors.
Fraunhofer-Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung -ISI-, Karlsruhe