Energy futures for the Federal Republic of Germany: Three scenarios

In the past, predictions of energy demand have been based on an assumed linear relationship between economic growth and the growth in primary energy consumption. However, increased costs of energy encourage conservation, and over time the consequent fall in the growth of consumption reduces the relationship with economic growth. Given that the real price of energy will continue to increase, the author concludes that, for Germany, the realistic potential for conservation, being relatively large, should result in projections of demand which are considerably lower than currently available estimates.