Technological convergence and the absorptive capacity of standardisation

In this paper we propose a method of identifying trends in technological convergence on the level of technical fields. Defining convergence as an inherently stable process of structuration of inter-technological patterns over time we are using German patent data and project them onto the structure of the output of standards via a concordance list of IPC symbols and ICS classes. Using a set of criteria for a reliable measurement of technological convergence we device a set of methods ranging from explorative identification of agglomerations of technical fields, analyses of the breadth of technical fields to differentiate between focussed and diffused convergence trends and in-depth analysis using a revised version of the Cross-Impact Assessment method to measure the level and trend of technological convergence between 1990 and 2003. We find that the structures of convergence in technological development and standardisation are in general moderately positivly correlated but that there are significant differences on how these converging trends are covered in the stock of active standards at the level of technical fields.