Hourly electricity load modelling of non-residential passive buildings in a Nordic climate

Detailed knowledge of electricity demand is essential for power system planning and operation. EUs 20-20-20 targets will increase the development of more energy efficient buildings as all new buildings shall be "nearly zero energy buildings" by 2020. The result from this ambition is that so-called passive buildings and nearly-net-zero-energy-buildings (nZEB), with lower energy demand, or even onsite power generation, will significantly change the way buildings are integrated in the power system. System operators must consequently prepare for changes in load profiles. However, the knowledge on the aggregated impact of nZEBs is so far limited because the actual number of such buildings is still very small. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by estimating the aggregated effect on electricity demand profiles. The load modelling is based on a statistical approach deriving hourly electricity load profiles of non-residential buildings based on measurements of 100 buildings. The profiles will be used as basis in further work to study the impact of a large rollout of ZEBs on the power system.