Navigating PtX Certification Challenges: Qualitative Assessment of Sustainability Requirements and Cost Dynamics for Exports from the SADC-region

This whitepaper provides a qualitative overview of the impacts and challenges of Power-to-X (PtX) certification on the development of PtX export hubs. We use the SADC (Southern African Development Community) as an exemplary PtX export region due to its abundant renewable sources, refinery infrastructure, as well as PtX policy frameworks and initiatives. We evaluate the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), South Korea and Japan as potential importing markets. We first provide an overview of the fundamentals of PtX certification, including an analysis of importing markets’ legal frameworks, certification schemes and market incentives for importing PtX from the SADC region (such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III); H2Global, atmosfair fairfuel, UK RFTO and SAF Mandate). From these regulations and standards, we identify relevant PtX sustainability criteria for the SADC region. We then give an overview of the efforts in the SADC region to support the development of a PtX market. Next, we qualitatively evaluate which technical and regulatory requirements can affect system design and levelized cost of PtX production systems. When then take a closer look at challenges arising from two exemplary sustainability criteria from the EU RED III. Industrial and political feedback on RED III criteria as well as stakeholder discussions in South Africa are presented subsequently. As a synthesis of our results, we conduct a SWOT analysis of the SADC region as a PtX exporting hub and present an outlook on future research needs.