Energy System Pathway Optimization Considering Market-Based and Geopolitical Technology Criticality

Conventional approaches to studying future energy infrastructure requirements prioritize meeting projected energy demands using the most cost-effective power generation technologies. Standard planning methodologies often assume the availability of essential technologies and their requisite raw materials without considering potential supply risk. However, considering raw material supply risks is crucial for informed decision-making, as it directly impacts the robustness and sustainability of future energy supply. We present a novel modeling approach where the minimization of the raw materials supply criticality is integrated into an energy system optimization model as an additional objective. Two supply risks are considered: a geopolitical criticality and a market-based criticality. Numerical experiments are realized on a German power system for a 15-year time horizon. Exemplary results based on our multi-criteria method show that improving the criticality over the cost leads to a shift in photovoltaic technologies.