Quantitative NDI integration with probabilistic fracture mechanics for the assessment of fracture risk in pipelines

In the context of probabilistic paradigm of fracture risk assessment in structural components a computer simulation rationale is presented which has at the base the integration of Quantitative Non-destructive Inspection and Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics. In this study the static failure under static loading is assessed in the format known as Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). The key concept in the analysis is the stress intensity factor (SIF) which accounts on the geometry of the component and the size of a pre-existent defect of a crack nature. For a complete deterministic description, the specification of loading intensity is made for the cases of internal and/or external pressure in combination with axial and bending loads. The involved material strength characteristics are the ultimate tensile strength, yield point and fracture toughness. In the case of welded joints specific influences can be accounted for via the stress concentration factors associated with the profile of the weld and secondary stresses derived from the residual stresses introduced by welding process. FAD assessments can be made in deterministic sense, which yields the end result in dual terms of fail/not-fail. The fracture risk is evaluated in probabilistic terms. The superposed probabilistic pattern over the deterministic one (in mean sense) is implemented via Monte-Carlo sampling. The probabilistic fracture simulation yields a more informative analysis in terms of probability of failure. An important feature of the PVrisk® software is the ability to simulate the influence of the quality and reliability of non-destructive inspection (NDI). It is achieved by integrating, algorithmically, probabilistic FAD analysis and the Probability of Detection (POD). The POD information can only be applied in a probabilistic analysis and leads to a refinement of the assessment. By this means, it can be ascertained the decrease of probability of failure (increase of reliability) when POD-characterized NDI is applied. Therefore, this procedure can be used as a tool for inspection based life time conceptions. In this paper results of sensitivity analyses are presented with the aim to outline, in terms of non-failure probabilities, the benefits of applying NDI, in various qualities, in comparison with the situation when NDI is lacking. A better substantiation is enabled of both the component reliability management and the costs-effectiveness of NDI timing.