Foresight in German Science and Technology

An upsurge of interest in Foresight has been triggered in Germany by the coutry's re-unification and the resulting question of how to integrate two very different national research systems. Other contributing factors have been the economic recession and the desire to convert military technology following the end of the Cold War. In Germany, there has been no national Foresight programme but rather a number of loosely related activities at variour levels of government trying out different methodological approaches. Among these, the Delphi Foresight approach seems to have been the most influencial. This approach is modelled on the Japanese experience of the past 24 years and has been modified and extended for application in Germany. A Comparison of responses by Japanese and German experts shows quite close agreement on the time-scale over which 1,150 prospective technologies are likely to be realised. However, there were significant differences between the two countries as regards the re lative importance given to individual technologies and the expected constraints on their realisations. Since both these aspects are linked to the national research system, such intercountry differences are not unexpected. There have been several follow-up studies which demonstrate how the results from these Foresight exercises have been utilised in different sectors of industry, in scientific organisation, in government bodies and by the public. At the level of state governments, there have been investigations of the regional iplications of the Foresight results. In industry, the participation by companies in the Foresight exercises undoubtedly led to a general improvement in their knowledge of furture technologiesx and socio-economic trends. To illustrate this, this chapter reports on a specialist survey of the future of the health care system by a medium-sized pharmaceutical company. Lastly, there has been wider impacts on society. The Foresight reports have been extensively circula t ed and discussed in the media. This appears to have led to some modifacation in the previously anti-technology stance of certain critical commentators, who have now come to see that the development of at least some technologies is desirable.