Krail, MichaelMichaelKrailKühn, AndreAndreKühn2022-03-122022-03-122012https://publica.fraunhofer.de/handle/publica/379549One of the main challenges of the freight transport sector is the reduction of GHG emissions. Conventional drives are already very efficient but different studies confirm that there is still a significant potential for improving fuel efficiency of ICE in trucks. On the other hand, the progress in research and development of alternative fuel technologies is visible. Trucks with CNG drive or electric drive are already on the roads in Europe for last mile delivery. The paper presents an approach to estimate the future potential of alternative fuel technologies for three different types of road freight transport. Additionally, it highlights the potential of ICE trucks for reducing GHG emissions and the cost development of the technologies by applying learning curves.enSystem DynamicsDiffusion theoryLearning curvesFuel efficiencyCNGHydrogenFuel cell303600conference paper