CC BY-NC-ND 4.0Boitier, BaptisteBaptisteBoitierNikas, AlexandrosAlexandrosNikasGambhir, AjayAjayGambhirKoasidis, KonstantinosKonstantinosKoasidisElia, AlessiaAlessiaEliaAl-Dabbas, KhaledKhaledAl-DabbasAlibas, SirinSirinAlibasCampagnolo, LorenzaLorenzaCampagnoloChiodi, AlessandroAlessandroChiodiDelpiazzo, ElisaElisaDelpiazzoDoukas, HarisHarisDoukasFougeyrollas, ArnaudArnaudFougeyrollasGargiulo, MaurizioMaurizioGargiuloLe Mouël, PierrePierreLe MouëlNeuner, FelixFelixNeunerPerdana, SigitSigitPerdanaVen, Dirk-Jan van deDirk-Jan van deVenVielle, MarcMarcVielleZagamé, PaulPaulZagaméMittal, ShivikaShivikaMittal2024-01-022024-01-022023https://publica.fraunhofer.de/handle/publica/458343https://doi.org/10.24406/publica-237210.1016/j.joule.2023.11.00210.24406/publica-2372The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from "Fit for 55" in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%-65% in 2030, to 60%-70% in 2040, and to 75%-90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5-2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.enmodelingclimate mitigation pathwaysnet-zero emissionsEuropean climate policyclimate and energy transitionFit for 55European Unionintegrated assessment modelsmodel inter-comparisonEmissions Trading Systemjournal article