Comparative analysis of methods for strategic security research planning

Within the FP7-supported project ""Evaluation of critical and emerging technologies for the elaboration of a security research agenda"" (ETCETERA, Oct. 2011 to Nov. 2013), technologies that are critical for security functions in Europe were checked for dependencies on extra-European sources. Furthermore, technologies that are now just emerging and will reach maturity in 10 to 15 years were assessed concerning their relevance for European security. In order to achieve these goals, a plethora of methods was employed, including desktop research, scientometrics (e.g., bibliometrics and patentometrics), a Weighted-Bit Assessment Method to aggregate expert opinion, an adapted TEPID-OIL filtering methodology (ITIPOLITRE), parallel workshops applying the World Café method, a dedicated Security Emerging Technology Assessment Game(SETAG) and a complex scenario process. Some of these methods have been specifically developed for the ETCTERA project and/or applied in the context of security research planning for the first time. A comparative analysis of the methods applied was performed, and recommendations for their employment in security research planning were made. This will facilitate better choices concerning methodology in future planning efforts.