Decarbonising cement production through electrification and thermal storage: impacts on electricity markets and transmission redispatch

Electrification is increasingly considered a key pathway for reducing emissions from cement production, but it shifts clinker heat supply towards greater dependence on power markets and electricity infrastructure. The effects of clinker electrification on day-ahead prices, balancing market participation, and redispatch remain insufficiently understood, although they are important for investment and operation. This study analyses how alternative electrification routes and high-temperature thermal storage at eight German cement plants with plausible reinvestment decisions by 2035 affect day-ahead prices, aFRR capacity provision, and redispatch in Germany. Cement production is represented through fully electrified clinker heat supply, a hydrogen kiln with on-site electrolysis, and partial electrification, benchmarked against a fossil reference. An agent-based model clears the day-ahead market and an aFRR capacity market sequentially. The resulting schedules are checked against transmission constraints and corrected through least-cost redispatch. Electrification raises the volume-weighted average accepted day-ahead price from 21.3 €/MWh in the fossil case to around 25–27 €/MWh. Cement plants contribute mainly to positive aFRR capacity at around 3.7–4.2%, while remaining below 1% in negative aFRR. Peak loading rises near large plants, yet redispatch volume falls from 379.0 TWh to about 360–367 TWh and average redispatch cost declines from about 245 €/MWh to around 140–150 €/MWh. Renewable curtailment decreases from 232.1 TWh to about 227–230 TWh. With thermal storage, cement plants can shift electricity demand, but the grid effect depends on plant location and operating conditions. Across the year, electrification lowers redispatch and renewable curtailment, although some transmission lines are more heavily loaded during severe hours. Plant operation should therefore consider both electricity prices and local grid conditions.