Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 294
  • Publication
    Sharing vehicles or sharing rides - Psychological factors influencing the acceptance of carsharing and ridepooling in Germany
    ( 2022)
    Burghard, Uta orcid-logo
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    Scherrer, Aline orcid-logo
    Shared mobility has the potential to reduce private car use and can thereby contribute to a mobility transition which reduces energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, shared mobility services still have a niche existence - even in major cities. If the goal is to establish shared mobility as a significant part of the mobility system, a key question is which factors determine the acceptance of individual services. Can perceived innovation-specific factors that can be more directly influenced by policies explain differences in attitudes and acceptance or does the explanatory power lie with psychological dispositions that are more difficult to change by policies? Do these factors apply in general or differ between different sharing services? We investigate these questions based on a survey study in major German cities to analyse the acceptance of two car-based shared mobility services, carsharing and ridepooling, in society (N = 1,531). The data analysis based on two path models shows that perceived compatibility with daily life is the most important factor related to the acceptance of carsharing and ridepooling. Perceived ease of use positively affects the general attitude towards both services. We conclude that our findings offer potential intervention routes for policies that increase the acceptance of shared mobility. The prerequisites for the services to contribute to a reduction in energy consumption in the transport sector are also discussed.
  • Publication
    Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria
    ( 2022)
    Mascherbauer, Philipp
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Yu, Songmin orcid-logo
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    Haupt, Thomas
    This paper addresses the following question: How can smart energy management system (SEMS) influence the residential electricity consumption at both individual household and national level? First, we developed an hourly optimization model for individual households. The energy cost of an individual household is minimized under given assumptions on outside temperature, radiation, (dynamic) electricity price, and feed-in tariff. By comparing the optimization to the reference scenario, we show the impact of SEMS on grid-electricity consumption and photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption at the individual household level. Second, to we aggregate the results to the national level, we constructed a detailed building stock taking Austria as an example. By aggregating the results of 2112 representative households, we investigate the impact of SEMS in the residential building stock on the national electricity system. As a result, we found that for individual single-family-houses (SFHs) with PV (no battery) and heat pump adoption, SEMS can significantly reduce the grid-electricity consumption up to 40.7% for a well-insulated building. At the national level we found that, for the buildings with 5 kWp PV but without hot water tank or battery storage, SEMS can still reduce the grid-electricity consumption by 7.4% by using the building mass as thermal storage.
  • Publication
    How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany
    ( 2022)
    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
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    Seddig, Katrin
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    Stich, Meike
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    Schade, Wolfgang
    ;
    Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.
    The future market diffusion of alternative fuels in the passenger car sector is of great interest to both carmakers and policymakers in order to decrease CO2 emissions. The decision to buy a car is not totally objective and only partly based on cost. For this reason, those modeling the future market evolution of cars powered by alternative fuels try to include behavioral and non-cost related aspects. This paper analyzes the integration of user behavior into market diffusion models and compares three models that include this aspect. The comparison comprises three parts: first, it compares the modeling approaches, then uses a harmonized data set to model the future market diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles, with and without behavioral aspects. The most important aspects of user behavior included in the models are the use of charging infrastructure, the limited model availability, the consideration of range anxiety as a hampering factor or the willingness-to-pay-more for alternative drivetrains as a supporting factor, as well as a distinction of users' driving distances. User behavior is considered in various ways, but always has a limiting effect on electric vehicle market diffusion. While a model that distinguishes individual users and driving distances stresses the high relevance of this aspect, it is considered less important in models with a more aggregated inclusion of user behavior based on logit functions.
  • Publication
    The future potential hydrogen demand in energy-intensive industries - a site-specific approach applied to Germany
    ( 2022)
    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Manz, Pia orcid-logo
    ;
    Hofmann, René
    Hydrogen, when based on renewable electricity, can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral industrial production, since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. At the same time, a large-scale roll-out of hydrogen for industrial use would entail substantial impacts on the energy system, which can only be assessed if the regional distribution of future hydrogen demand is considered. Here, we assess the technical potential of hydrogen-based technologies for energy-intensive industries in Germany. The site-specific and process-specific bottom-up calculation considers 615 individual plants at 367 sites, and results in a total potential hydrogen demand of 326 TWh/a. The results are available as an open dataset. Using hydrogen for non-energy-intensive sectors as well increases the potential hydrogen demand to between 482 and 534 TWh/a for Germany - based on today's industrial structure and production output. This assumes that fossil fuels are almost completely replaced by hydrogen for process heating and feedstocks. The resulting hydrogen demand is very unevenly distributed: a few sites account for the majority of the overall potential and, similarly, the bulk of demand is concentrated in a few regions with steel and chemical clusters.
  • Publication
    Household acceptability of energy efficiency policies in the European Union: Policy characteristics trade-offs and the role of trust in government and environmental identity
    ( 2022)
    Faure, Corinne
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    Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte
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    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
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    Tu, Gengyang
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    Whitmarsh, Lorraine
    ;
    Whittle, Colin
    This research investigates the acceptability of energy efficiency policies among European households. Based on large-scale surveys in Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, we use a discrete choice experiment to study the tradeoffs made by households between various policy characteristics including policy target level, dependence on energy imports, policy instruments (education and information programmes, standards, taxation, energy consumption limit), costs to the household, and distribution of costs between households and other sectors. In particular, we investigate the role of trust in government and of environmental identity on the acceptability of these policy characteristics. Across the four countries, we find that households prefer effective policies, dislike personal costs, and prefer non-coercive to coercive instruments; further, trust in government helps make coercive policies such as taxes more acceptable, whereas higher environmental identity makes consumption limits more acceptable.
  • Publication
    Discriminatory subsidies for energy-efficient technologies and the role of envy
    ( 2022)
    Fanghella, Valeria
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    Faure, Corinne
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    Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte
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    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
    Discriminatory subsidies, that is, subsidies for which only a subset of the population is eligible, are widespread. However, research on social preferences suggests that non-eligible households may negatively respond to these subsidies. We investigate both eligible and non-eligible households' response to discriminatory subsidies for smart thermostats using a discrete choice experiment with 3071 owner-occupiers from France and Romania. Households are randomly exposed to discriminatory subsidies through a between-subject design that manipulates two factors: type of discrimination (positive or negative) and eligibility criteria (based on geographical location or on household characteristics). A control condition (uniform subsidy) is also included. In addition, we elicit envy via an incentivized game in the sample from France. Our results show that eligible households are more likely to adopt a smart thermostat, regardless of whether the subsidy is uniform or discriminatory. By contrast, non-eligible households are less likely to adopt it, especially when eligibility criteria are based on household characteristics. We find no evidence for a moderating effect of envy.
  • Publication
    Cross-border concentrated solar power projects - opportunity or dead end? A study into actor views in Europe
    ( 2022)
    Burghard, Uta orcid-logo
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    Dütschke, Elisabeth orcid-logo
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    Caldes, Natalia
    ;
    Oltra, Christian
    Cross-border renewable energy projects (in particular those based on concentrated solar power (CSP)) could play an important role in the future EU energy systems. Be it by contributing to enhanced energy security, improving the management of the energy system or meeting the EU renewable energy target in a cost-effective manner. However, despite the expected benefits associated with the use of cooperation mechanisms set up under the Renewable Energy Directive, several barriers and, possibly, lack of active support have prevented a wide use of these mechanisms among Member States. This paper explores whether social acceptance, or lack there of, can explain some of this lag in development. Collecting actor views on CSP cooperation mechanisms between EU Member States forms the basis of this analysis. The empirical basis consists of 43 interviews from Spain as a potential host for and Germany and the Netherlands as potential consumers of renewable energy (off-taker countries). The data analysis outlines that overall CSP cooperation mechanisms are seen positively; however, the complexity of implementation, heterogeneity of actor views, as well as high costs for CSP are perceived as downsides. Thus, overall, a societal impetus is missing and interest in further development seems limited.
  • Publication
    Towards improved prosumer participation: Electricity trading in local markets
    ( 2022)
    Kühnbach, Matthias
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    Bekk, Anke
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    Weidlich, Anke
    Local energy markets are a promising way to involve prosumers in the electricity system and activate demand-side flexibility. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework consisting of an optimization for prosumer home energy management systems embedded in a local energy market simulation. To enable an integrated assessment, the local market is linked to a central spot market. For each prosumer, we consider the individual flexibility potential, home storage systems, and demand response of electric vehicles. Using this model, we analyze the costs and benefits of a local market for prosumers in an energy system with a high share of renewable energy. We compare the systemic effects and the potential economic benefits of this local market for prosumers to pure self-consumption and prosumer participation in a central spot market. Applying our model to a case study of 480 prosumers, we show that a system including a local market is beneficial compared to self-consumption from a systemic perspective. However, allowing prosumers to participate directly in a central spot market is more profitable and facilitates the system integration of renewables.
  • Publication
    Factors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China
    ( 2021)
    Franke, Katja
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Deac, Gerda orcid-logo
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    Kleinschmitt, Christoph
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between -10% and -51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system.
  • Publication
    CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe
    ( 2021)
    Breed, Annelis K.
    ;
    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
    ;
    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
    Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet. Here, we derive sales share scenarios for zero emission trucks in Europe based on emissions reduction options and their associated costs. We find that manufacturers will require at least 4-22% of their newly sold heavy-duty vehicles to be zero emission in 2030, depending on their strategy to improve their diesel trucks. This implies a stock share of 2-11% for ZEV trucks in Europe in 2030. Yet, high sales shares for ZEVs and the super credits granted by the regulation allow manufacturers to meet their target with little CO2 reduction in the conventional fleet leading to low actual emission reduction.