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Technology foresight using a delphi approach - a Japanese-German co-operation

: Breiner, S.; Cuhls, K.; Grupp, H.


R and D Management 24 (1994), Nr.2, S.141-153
ISSN: 0033-6807
Fraunhofer ISI ()
Delphi; Delphi-Methode; Technologievorausschau; technology forecasting; technology foresight

This article describes a joint project conducted from 1991 until 1993 by the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). Some first outcomes, and different alternatives on how to use the data for trend interpretation and priority setting, are described. The Japanese Delphi survey is conducted every five years and was first undertaken in 1971. In 1992, NISTEP and ISI agreed on a joint project. About 3000 Japanese experts were asked to answer more than 1000 questions based an 16 different technological areas. With financial aid from the Federal German Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT) the Japanese fifth Delphi survey was replicated in Germany. The Japanese questions were translated and more than 1000 German experts responded to the questionnaires and judged the possible technological development within the next 20 to 30 years. The aim of this joint project is to compare the J apanese and the German answers in order to analyse possible differences and to understand the cultural influences on technology assessment.