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1998
Conference Paper
Titel
The Influence of Personal Attitudes on the Estimation of the Future Development of Science and Technology: A Factor Analysis Approach
Titel Supplements
Personal Influence on the Estimation of the Future of Science and Technology
Abstract
In 1966, the second German Delphi study ("Delphi '98) has been started. The Delphi '98 is a tworound Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998 and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in twelfe thematic fields in the next 30 years. In order to arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitutdes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey additionally for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological and political developments. Over 2300 answers lead to a very solid data base, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D exp erts. One some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions co-exist. These results may serve as the data base for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. The paper examines the cucial question, whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert type can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs signifacantly in the twelve fields.