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Foresight in Germany: The example of the Delphi '98 or: How can the future be shaped?

: Cuhls, K.; Blind, K.

Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-73280 (1.2 MByte PDF)
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Erstellt am: 15.1.2013

International Journal of Technology Management 21 (2001), Nr.7/8, S.767-780
ISSN: 0267-5730
ISSN: 1741-5276
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
technology management; science and state research; international cooperation research; delphi technique research; science and technology policy; delphi-method; foresight; international cooperation; science and technology

Research is presented concerning the results of the Delphi study method used by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in the 1990s. The management of the follow-up process 'FUTUR' is discussed. The German foresight experiences started at the beginning of the 1990s with a comprehensive Delphi study conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the Federal German Ministry for Science and Technology (BMFT, since 1994 BMBF). The second large German Foresight study on the global development of science and technology - called Delphi '98 - was more concentrated on German needs to provide companies, ministries, research institutions or other interested actors in the R&D system with information about the future. In the Delphi '98 not only emerging technologies but also 19 general megatrends were asked about. The German Delphi process is organized with a steering group and expert panels for the creation of visionary topics, a two-round Delphi survey with a feedback loop and an implementation phase with workshops and an Internet platform for the diffusion and discussion of the results. Some of them are described in this article. A follow-up process 'FUTUR' is supposed to continue the work of exploring and shaping the future.