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The use of FATE for illuminating disruptions

: Adlakha-Hutcheon, Gitanjali; Bown, Kevin J.; Lindberg, Anna; Nielsen, Thomas Galasz; Römer, Silke; Maltby, J.F.J.

Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-6333859 (284 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: c021f7a8b2a6fd82dd0bfd9f756ee6e3
Erstellt am: 20.3.2021

Präsentation urn:nbn:de:0011-n-633385-17 (1.8 MByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 1e78777987bdd06eb96d6cc5e74b0aa8
Erstellt am: 20.3.2021

NATO Allied Command Transformation -ACT-; North Atlantic Treaty Organization -NATO-, Brussels:
14th NATO Operations Research and Analysis Conference, OR&A 2020 : Emerging and Disruptive Technology, 5-6 October 2020, virtual conference
Brussels: NATO STO, 2021
ISBN: 978-92-837-2336-3
10 S.
Operations Research and Analysis Conference (OR&A) <14, 2020, Online>
Konferenzbeitrag, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer INT ()

FATE is a new method developed through research conducted by the NATO Systems Analysis Studies Research Task Group 123 (NATO SAS-123). FATE is the acronym for Futures Assessed alongside socio Technical Evolutions. The method was developed to anticipate the evolution of technologies with the potential to be disruptive in the context of social factors that drive or retard their diffusion. FATE is achieved systematically by examining technologies as a part of a socio-technical system (STS); additionally, it is undertaken in relation to pre-composed descriptions of ‘states of the world’ in the future or future scenarios. It is our belief that this is a unique, first of its kind, operational research method, which analyses socio-technical evolutions of emerging or disruptive technologies relative to future scenarios. FATE is a tool that facilitates assessment of the uncertainties associated with social changes that influence technological advancement and adoption in an emerging and complex future. Outputs of FATE serve to inform decision-makers in a holistic fashion on multiple future scenarios. Several STSs were evaluated for their possible implications on defence and security. The results from one of the trials of FATE held at the Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (Dstl) UK will be shared using measures such as the disruption calculus.