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2017
Conference Paper
Titel
Forecast models and hierarchical combined discreterate/discrete-event simulation models for parcel service networks
Abstract
Parcel service providers act in a fast changing market. The annual number of dispatch orders increased continuously in the past years, because of the tremendous popularity of e-commerce. At the same time, customers are expecting shorter delivery periods and lower prices for shipment services caused by the entrance of new competitors, the intersection of potential customers of courier, express and parcel delivery service providers and the increasing service quality advertised by ecommerce market leaders. In the consequence, parcel service providers need efficient tools to keep in pace with this development. This paper presents two simulation models, which enable the user to forecast future dispatch quantities and to evaluate the performance of their delivery network in consideration of different levels of detail.