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Development of scenarios for a multi-model system analysis based on the example of a cellular energy system

: Kühnbach, Matthias; Guthoff, Felix; Bekk, Anke; Eltrop, Ludger

Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-5777737 (998 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: a717bc2b75e6d62b9dd44a105129ce0b
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Erstellt am: 15.2.2020

Energies 13 (2020), Nr.4, Art. 773, 23 S.
ISSN: 1996-1073
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
scenario development; multi‐model analysis; cellular energy systems; energy system modelling

Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.