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Transport demand evolution in Europe - factors of change, scenarios and challenges

: Bernardino, Joao P.R.; Aggelakakis, Aggelos; Reichenbach, Max; Vieira, J.; Boile, Maria; Schippl, Jens; Christidis, Panayotis; Papanikolaou, Anestis; Condeco, Ana; Garcia, H.; Krail, Michael

Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-5622166 (719 KByte PDF)
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Erstellt am: 20.11.2019

Volltext ()

European Journal of Futures Research 3 (2015), Art. 13, 13 S.
ISSN: 2195-4194 (Print)
ISSN: 2195-2248 (Online)
European Commission EC
FUture prospects on TRansport evolution and innovation challenges for the competitiveness of Europe
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
trends in passenger transport; trends in freight transport; transport futures; scenario analysis

In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people's preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.