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Validated 3D spatial stepwise quantitative hazard, risk and resilience analysis and management of explosive events in urban areas

: Häring, Ivo; Ramin, Malte von; Stottmeister, Alexander; Schäfer, Johannes; Vogelbacher, Georg; Brombacher, Bernd; Pfeiffer, Mercy; Restayn, Elena-Maria; Ross, Katharina; Schneider, Johannes; Hiermaier, Stefan

Volltext ()

European journal for security research 4 (2019), Nr.1, S.93-129
ISSN: 2365-0931
ISSN: 2364-1695
European Commission EC
FP7; 261741; VITRUV
European Commission EC
FP7; 285505; ENCOUNTER
European Commission EC
FP7; 284996; D-BOX
European Commission EC
FP7; 313077; EDEN
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer EMI ()
quantitative risk analysis; probabilistic risk analysis; hazard analysis; damage analysis; explosives safety; occupational safety; 3D simulation; civil security; explosive terror attack

Urban physical security and resilience with respect to accidental and intentional explosive events are an increasing issue regarding civil safety and security of modern societies and their citizens. Examples include industrial on-site explosions, gas explosions or terrorist attacks. In particular, multiple, simultaneous and maliciously time-coordinated events are an increasing event type such as complex attack events consisting of targeted combinations of improvised explosive devices. The paper presents a comprehensive, tailorable and stepwise process. This includes methodologies for scenario, hazard, damage, exposure, event frequency, risk and resilience analysis that have been developed, refined and praxis-tested over decades. The focus is on a summarizing description of the modern best practice approach, the validation efforts undertaken for each step as well as two detailed case studies for exemplary presentation and overall validation. In a comprehensive table, the present approach is compared with other state-of-the-art approaches. The paper shows a refined process how to systematically improve resilience when using the tool, in particular through barriers at explosive sites and at exposed sites of various geometries. Furthermore, along the presentation a set of quality requirements regarding explosive event risk and resilience analyses are provided as collected over the years from the in-field, user group and engineering science perspective as well as a broad outlook on extension options for the future.