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System dynamics modelling of the European demand for bio-based plastics

An analysis of scaling and learning effects and framework conditions on price competitiveness and market growth
 
: Horvat, Djerdj; Wydra, Sven

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Volltext (PDF; )

Anderla, A. ; University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management:
IS 2017, 17th International Scientific Conference on Industrial Systems. Proceedings. Online resource : 4 - 6th October 2017, Novi Sad, Serbia
Novi Sad: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, 2017
https://www.iim.ftn.uns.ac.rs/is17/proceedings.html
ISBN: 978-86-7892-978-6
6 S.
International Scientific Conference on Industrial Systems (IS) <17, 2017, Novi Sad>
Englisch
Konferenzbeitrag, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
system dynamics; bio-based plastic; scaling and learning effect; price competition

Abstract
Bio-based plastics are used as raw materials in a wide range of applications and provide potential for mitigating climate change by lowering CO2 emissions. However, because of the high production costs compared to fossil-based alternative products, they are currently not cost competitive on the market. Moreover, the decrease of oil price as main antecedent of fossil-based plastics has even been diminishing their competiveness. Thus, the future of bio-based plastics on the market depends on the changing framework conditions, in the form of policy supports and increase in oil price. The key question that arises, in this regard, is how the linkage between the reduction of production costs and the changed framework conditions influences the competitiveness of bio-based plastics on the European market in the next 15 years period. To examine these dynamics and interaction, we developed a simple System Dynamics as a part of a research project funded by the European Union. The results of our simulation runs show a positive impact of scaling and learning effects resulting from build up and running of new capacities as well as adopting new technologies on the price of bio-based plastics and thereby on their demand on the market. However, without changed framework conditions in terms of increasing oil price and new policy incentives in the form of tax exemptions and subsidies for new technologies, bio-based plastics cannot achieve cost competitiveness on the European market in the next 15 years period.

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/dokumente/N-474062.html