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Scenario based evaluation of policies addressing the German heating and cooling sector: A bottom-up modeling approach integrating buildings, industry and district heating

: Steinbach, Jan; Kranzl, Lukas; Müller, Andreas; Hummel, Marcus; Kockat, Judit; Herbst, Andrea; Toro, Felipe; Reitze, Felix; Jochem, Eberhard; Fette, Max; Schulz, Wolfgang; Bürger, Veit

Lindström, T. ; European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy -ECEEE-, Paris:
Rethink, renew, restart. eceee 2013 Summer Study. Proceedings : 3-8 June 2013, Belambra Les Criques, Toulon/Hyères, France
Stockholm: ECEEE, 2013
ISBN: 978-91-980482-2-3 (Print)
ISBN: 978-91-980482-3-0 (Online)
European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ECEEE Summer Study) <2013, Toulon>
Fraunhofer ISI ()
policy evaluation; energy efficiency policy; bottom-up analysis; buildings; industrial process; renewable heating

Energy demand for heating and cooling represents the largest energy use sector in Germany. Measures to enhance energy efficiency of buildings and industry processes are often considered as a cost-effective opportunity to reduce energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, realized improvements in energy efficiency have failed to live up to expectations in the past few years considering its attributed potential; raising the question if the targets regarding energy efficiency and renewable heating and cooling set by the German government are still feasible. This paper presents a variety of scenarios for the German heating and cooling sector up to 2020 using an exploratory modeling approach. Each scenario considers a certain set of different policy instruments which are analyzed by integrating four different techno-economic bottom-up sector models – INVERT/EE-Lab, Forecast-ProcIndustry, ProcServ and District heating/CHP model. The latter considers different building and settlement types to calculate the potential of district heating and CHP technologies subject to energy load of industry processes and buildings. The dynamic simulation model INVERT/EE-Lab is applied to simulate investment decisions in energy efficiency measures and evaluate different support schemes in the building sector. Forecast-ProcIndustry and ProcServ describes the energy demand of process heating and cooling in industry and the service sector, respectively.