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The use of what-if analysis to improve the management of crisis situations

 
: Rome, Erich; Doll, Thomas; Rilling, Stefen; Sojeva, Betim; Voss, Norman; Xie, Jingquan

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Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-4526528 (1.5 MByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: b636c38a6982f889b71b0731e92290f4
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Erstellt am: 28.6.2017


Setola, Roberto; Rosato, Vittorio; Kyriakides, Elias; Rome, Erich:
Managing the complexity of critical infrastructures. A modelling and simulation approach
Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016 (Studies in Systems, Decision and Control 90)
ISBN: 978-3-319-51042-2 (Print)
ISBN: 978-3-319-51043-9 (Online)
S.233-277
European Commission EC
FP7; 312450; CIPRNet
Englisch
Aufsatz in Buch, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer IAIS ()
What-If Analysis; critical infrastructure; Crisis Situations

Abstract
The EU FP7 Network of Excellence CIPRNet has developed CIPRTrainer, an application that provides a new capability for training crisis management (CM) staff. It enables exploring different courses of action and comparing their consequences (what-if analysis) in complex simulated crisis and emergency scenarios. The simulation employs threat, impact, and damage models and is based on federated modelling, simulation and analysis of Critical Infrastructures. In this chapter, we present an overview of the technical realisation of CIPRTrainer, embed the approach into the state of the art, and elaborate on CIPRTrainers user interface and the training experience. The chapter also explains how the models for the complex crisis scenarios have been created, what level of detail could be realised, and how cases of missing data could be handled. As an example, we use a cross-border scenario about a cargo train derailment disaster. In the final sections, the reader learns how to set up, start and perform a training session with CIPRTrainer, how to use what if analysis, and how to read the results of consequence analysis.

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/dokumente/N-452652.html