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Monetary quantification of supply risks of manufacturing enterprises - discrete event simulation based approach

: Cube, Philipp von; Härtel, Lasse; Schmitt, Robert; Ponsard, Christophe; Massonet, Philippe; Landtsheer, Renaud de; Ospina, Gustavo; Printz, Stephan; Jeschke, Sabina

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Procedia CIRP 57 (2016), S.164-170
ISSN: 2212-8271
Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CMS) <49, 2016, Stuttgart>
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Konferenzbeitrag, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer IPT ()
monetary risk quantification; discrete event simulation; Monte Carlo simulation; use-cases; QM-Methoden; Risikomanagement; Simulation

Various approaches exist to quantify risks in supply chains. However, two aspects in risk assessments are not usually considered: monetarized risk quantification and use-case dependent model complexity. Monetarily quantifying risks means quantifying root-cause and severity of each single risk and aggregating these risks into an aggregated risk value. Thereby information uncertainty, complex interrelations and dynamic influences need to be considered. Depending on a use-cases goal information or process models need to be created at different levels of detail. This paper presents a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) approach providing all necessary features to monetarily quantify risks in dependent of the depth of information and thus allow adjusting the model dependent on the use-case. It provides graphical modeling language equipped with risk assessment probes enabling to capture all risk-relevant aspects. Based on this instrumented model, the framework is then able to compute and report about monetary risk quantification using an efficient DES engine driven by a Monte-Carlo procedure. Within this paper applicability of such an approach shall be assessed in use-case specific processes characterized by determined risks and parameter settings.