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Combination of an evolutionary Agent-Based Model of transitions in shipping technologies with a System Dynamics expectations formulation

: Senger, F.; Hartwig, J.


Yilmaz, L. ; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers -IEEE-; Association for Computing Machinery -ACM-, Special Interest Group on Simulation:
Winter Simulation Conference 2015. Proceedings : December 6 - 9, 2015, Huntington Beach, California
Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2015
ISBN: 978-1-4673-9743-8 (Online)
ISBN: 978-1-4673-9741-4 (CD-ROM)
ISBN: 978-1-4673-9742-1 (USB)
Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) <2015, Huntington Beach/Calif.>
Fraunhofer ISI ()

We combine in this paper an existing Agent-Based Model (ABM) of transitions in ship propulsion technologies with an expectations formulation from System Dynamics (SD). The reason for doing this was to take the best of two worlds, meaning that it may be able to implement another set of decision rules using SD than it is possible by solely employing ABM. In the ship model diffusion pathways are determined by the decisions of shipyards to invest in new technologies to meet demand for new-buildings from logistics companies and the consequent improvements in cost and performance. As will be shown in this paper the integration of SD-based investment forecasts of the agents not only changes the technological market shares, but also overall market size.