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Hype cycle of technology intelligence

: Schuh, Günther; Apfel, Katharina

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International Journal of Engineering and Technical Research. Online resource 2 (2014), Nr.12, S.126-130
ISSN: 2454-4698 (Print)
ISSN: 2321-0869 (Online)
Zeitschriftenaufsatz, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer IPT ()
Technologiemanagement; Technologiefrüherkennung

Technology intelligence supports the management of relevant data to seize potential chances and avoid risks in today's fast changing economy. Supported by a questionnaire-based study with industrial partners as well as experience of many years in consulting companies, the Fraunhofer IPT generated a model of the historical development of technology intelligence. The aim is to explain the historical development of technology intelligence. Findings of this paper can be used by companies to classify their own technology intelligence status and identify which factors are relevant for this challenging task. Based on Gartner's Hype Cycle the model was adapted to the organizational task of technology intelligence and five phases of historical development were identified. The "Trigger" phase started in the mid 80s, when technologies have been recognized as crucial strategic factors due to globalism and converging markets. Main tasks were manual searches of new technologies while a "big picture" of the company's environment and technological position was often missing. Expectations regarding technology intelligence rose steadily higher in the "Trigger" phase until reaching the phase "Peak of inflated expectations", where more resources were supplied and activities were centralized and more formalized. In addition to that the explosion of information led to a need of automation tools for the search. The third phase "Through of disillusionment" extenuated the exaggerated expectations about technology intelligence due to over-formalized tasks, too many undirected searches and intra-organizational communication problems. The current phase "Slope of enlightenment" is characterized by the development of advanced IT-tools for scanning, the strategic alignment of technology intelligence and the aim of increasing productivity and efficiency of technology intelligence. For reaching the last, future phaste "Plateau of productivity" further exploitation of IT-tools is predicted and establishing a culture of knowledge-sharing is recommended.