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Emerging technologies in civil security - a scenario-based analysis

: Bierwisch, Antje; Kayser, Victoria; Shala, Erduana


Technological forecasting and social change 101 (2015), S.226-237
ISSN: 0040-1625
Fraunhofer ISI ()
foresight; scenario technique; security technology; Technology Assessment; societal needs

Civil security is a major issue on the European policy level and for the European market as a future lead market. Civil security technologies and their implementation are generally characterized by high complexity, multi-stakeholder involvement and a high level of regulation. Due to these characteristics and the influence of societal aspects, it is extremely difficult to evaluate the future developments and applications of emerging security technologies. This is why only a small number of studies have addressed this issue so far and empirical insights into these aspects are still scarce. Our paper addresses this research gap by applying scenarios to consider different societal aspects and their impacts on emerging security technologies and their applications. Based on quantitative and qualitative data and are used as the evaluation background for emerging security technologies. The results show that this approach is suitable to consider technological and non-technological drivers and barriers, and to derive measures and recommendations. The paper contributes to research on technology innovation systems from a challenge-oriented policy perspective and gives new impulses for future research, especially in the field of civil security.