Hier finden Sie wissenschaftliche Publikationen aus den Fraunhofer-Instituten.

GLOMO - Global Mobility Model

Beschreibung und Ergebnisse
: Kühn, André

Volltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-3070066 (388 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 32f528e258b229b685f2a51ede046d53
Erstellt am: 17.9.2014

Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI, 2014, 25 S.
Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation, 13/2014
Bericht, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()

The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the most important markets (USA, Japan, EU, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). According to the changes in framework conditions within these countries, worldwide car sales will nearly double up to 2030 (120 Mio. cars a year), with the most dynamic development in the Chinese market. The simulation results also show that - depending on the chosen scenario - a 40 %- share of alternative drive technologies within the worldwide car sales in 2030 seems to be possible.