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Long-term Energy Demand Modelling - Analyzing the Impact of Myopic Technological Knowledge

Paper presented at Conference on Energy Systems in Transition: Inter- and Transdisciplinary Contributions, Karlsruhe, 2013.. Helmholtz Association - Alliance ENERGY-TRANS
: Elsland, Rainer; Wietschel, Martin

Conference on Energy Systems in Transition <2013, Karlsruhe>
Fraunhofer ISI ()
Bottom-up analysis; Regression analysis; Patent analysis; Energy efficiency; Residential sector

Increasing energy efficiency is known to be a significant driver for decarbonizing the energy system. To analyze the impact of energy efficiency ex ante usually technology-based models are applied. However, because of limited knowledge about long-term technological progress, the applicability of this approach is restricted for long modelling horizons (Grupp, 1997).
The objective of this study is to develop a concept that considers technology myopia in long-term energy demand modelling in the residential sector. To emphasize the added value of this study the concept will be applied to the German residential sector in terms of explorative scenarios up to 2050 focusing on electricity.