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Reducing the climate impact of transport - technologies and policies for road transport

: Krail, Michael; Schade, Wolfgang

Volltext (PDF; )

System Dynamics Society, Albany:
30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2012. Online conference proceedings : St. Gallen, Switzerland; July 22-26, 2012
Albany, N.Y.: The System Dynamics Society, 2012
ISBN: 978-1-935056-10-2
ISBN: 978-1-935056-09-6 (Print)
17 S.
System Dynamics Society (International Conference) <30, 2012, St. Gallen>
Konferenzbeitrag, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
Alternative Fuel Cars; CO2 emissions; Integrated Modeling; ASTRA; Fuel Efficiency; Learning Curve

Assessing impacts of policies and strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from road transport requires an integrated modeling approach. System Dynamics suits perfectly as methodology to simulate the dynamics determined by feedbacks between transport, energy, economic and environmental systems. The ASTRA model incorporates these capabilities. The paper at hand describes the structure and the dynamics of the ASTRA model and zooms into the vehicle fleet model. The dynamics considered in the technological diffusion model is explained in detail. The novelty is the explicit feedback modeling between diffusion and sales of certain technologies and their costs, when the costs move down the learning curve. Finally, the paper presents a set of different scenarios which should create a common understanding on the complexity of the transport and energy system and the potential contribution of policies and technologies to reduce the carbon footprint of car transport.